One of the most advantageous developments of the past few decades is the availability of robust data that provide important insights into the world in which we live. This can show how society is changing, the impact of interventions and ultimately lead to better decision making.
The Power of Data in Understanding Societal Changes
For example, health data collected in the UK since 1970 clearly shows a downward trajectory of adult cigarette smoking, which is reflected in the steady decline in death rates from cardiovascular disease (CVD) over the same period. This represents a victory for public health policy. Smoking is a key risk factor in CVD and this outcome justifies government interventions over the same period, such as banning tobacco advertising, promoting health warnings and a introducing a public smoking ban.
This is just one of many areas of public life for which we have access to this level of data. It’s a privileged position to be alive at a time when policy making can be based on such a rich understanding of the state of society. In the case of public health in the UK it’s clear that if smoking levels increased it will result in an increase in the death rate from CVD. It is, therefore, extremely unlikely that the government will U-turn and promote a pro-smoking agenda.
There are many areas of life where we have access to similar levels of data; one of which is payments. While not a matter of life and death, payments support economic activity and play an essential role in everyone’s day-to-day life. It’s widely recognised that a safe and inclusive payment system is a key pillar of a well-functioning society.
Cash Payments: From Decline to Stability
Data shows that over the few decades there’s been a relative increase in digital payment volumes. In the Euro Area, the share of cash payments, in terms of the volume of point-of-sale payments, has fallen from 79% in 2016 to 52% in 2025. In the UK, between 2013 and 2023, cash payment volumes declined by 70%. In the same period, payments made with debit cards, including contactless, increased by almost 200%. This has resulted in cash accounting for 12% of the total volume of all payments in 2023. While UK and Euro Area datasets measure different types of payments, they both illustrate the relative decline in cash.
Accordingly, for the past decade the narrative on the future of cash has been one of decline. This is reflected in the data and the experience of many people who have, to a varying degree, experienced a greater role of digital in many aspects of their day-to-day lives. However, recent data shows that, in some countries, over the past few years the decline of cash payments has slowed and moved from a period of decline to one of plateau.
For example, while the total annual volume of UK cash payments has fallen over the past 15 years, since 2020 is has settled at around 6 billion per annum from 2020. In the Netherlands, while cash payments have fallen from 53% of all payments in 2014 to 19% in 2024, they have been in and around the 20% mark for the past 4 years. This contrasts with the steep decline witnessed in earlier years and points towards a shift from a period of intense to gentle decline, and perhaps leading to a plateau, or ‘new normal’, where there will be little change year-on-year.
This has also been experienced in countries that have witnessed a major shift away from cash. Sweden and Norway are commonly presented as two of the most ‘cashless’ countries in the world. Over the past decade their citizens have adopted digital payments in a much more aggressive manner than western and central European countries, largely due to low populations and the availability and success of domestic digital payment options, such as Swish in Sweden and Vipps in Norway. However, cash remains a feature in their societies: in Sweden, data from the Riksbank shows that while 40% of people said that they paid cash for their last in-store purchase in 2010, this has been around 10% for the past three years; in Norway, the number of cash payments as a percentage of the total number of payments fell from 12% in 2017 to 3% in 2020, where it has remained without significant variation. While these are small numbers, they tell a big story: at some point, even in the most digitally advanced societies, cash stops declining, plateaus and finds a new normal.
Reframing the Future: The Continued Importance of Cash in Payments
The data clearly points to cash continuing to play a role in nations’ payment system for years to come. This counters the narrative, adopted by governments and digital payment companies, that we will soon be living in a “cashless society” and provides a more accurate understanding of society.
This type of evidence should from the basis of the cash industry reframing the narrative on the future of payments and the role of cash. Geo-political events are leading countries to consider the sovereignty of their payment systems, and recent natural disasters have shone a spotlight on the role of cash the contingency payment option.
These present a new context for which to make the argument for protecting access to, and the acceptance of cash to policy makers in government. It’s up to the cash industry to grab this opportunity and ensure that cash continues to play a vital role in supporting a safe and inclusive payment system in the digital age.
Source: CashEssentials